Yves de Contades interviews: David Murrin on Breaking the Code of History

Yves de Contades interviews: David Murrin on Breaking the Code of History

Yves de Contades interviews:David Murrin a leading market analyst and fund manager who lectures widely on financial markets and appears regularly as a keynote speaker on CNBC, at international conferences and on company boards and is the author of Breaking the Code of History
 
Q: Tell us a little about your professional background
I Studied Physics with Geophysics at Exeter University, then spent 2.5 years as a seismologist in PNG jungles learning from the natives there. Subsequently worked 7 years with JPMorgan trading global markets. For the last 17 years I have been running my own investment businesses in global market trading and private equity such as Emergent Asset Management amongst others.
 
Q: Why did you decide to write breaking the Code of History?
I had been speaking about the new world paradigm and the massive geopolitical shift since 9/11, but only on the arrival of my twins in 2005 did I feel that I had to overcome my dyslexia and write a book that explained the danger we were all in, especially our children
 
Q: What are the five stages of Empire?
1. Regionalisation 2. Ascension to empire 3. Maturity 4. Overextension 5. Decline and legacyThese five stages can be compared to the human lifecycle, beginning with birth and a period of nurturing and followed by independence, self-expression and the manifestation of one.s capabilities in the world. A peak is reached, say, after four or five decades; if it could be measured, it would comprise a mixture of wealth, energy, health, contentment, power and creativity. Finally, the decline toward death begins, completing the cycle.
 
Q: How do you see the power balance changing between the west and the new emerging nations of the east?
It will accelerate as real growth in the west is negative and our society fractures, whilst the east continues to grow in real terms. Economic power will translate into military power and aggression/expansion by China
 
Q: Can you give us an overview of the Geopolitics of oil?
The key elements are the increasing shortage of oil and civil war in the Middle East with an increased power of China centric governments leading to the potential denial of oil to west.
 
Q: How rapidly do you see climate change affecting us?
It's here in already in a big way and its effects will only accelerate and continue to surprise us. Its major economic ramifications for all and increased friction over water will increase the probability of conflict. The West will have more problems adapting than the newer growing nations.
 
Q; How will resource scarcity affect us in the next few years? The increasing scarcity of all resources will lead to military conflict. Q: Will diseases and famine possible play a large role as in the past? Yes as the social fabric in the west declines so will there be increased risk of disease
 
Q: How do you see the next twenty years and what should we be doing for our future?
It's like a re run of 1900-1914 or 1930-1939, we are on the road to conflict with China and unless the west wakes up and enacts radical economic reforms, especially debt restructuring, so that it can lower taxes and stimulate its economies the economic gap will get bigger causing the arms buildup by China to go unchallenged,. This combined with the resource scarcity problem could result in a major global war with everyone against the Chinese by 2020.
David Murrin's book Breaking the Code of History is available here:  http://www.breakingthecodeofhistory.com/